Economic Update: Employment, COVID and a Look Back at the Last Decade

Houston has overcome significant hurdles from the COVID-induced recession, but difficulties still lie ahead. During this week’s Economy Series webinar, Patrick Jankowski, the Partnership’s Senior Vice President of Research, discussed how Houston has recovered and what the region can expect through the remainder of the year.

Here are the five key takeaways to know:

1. EMPLOYMENT: The industry sectors most impacted by social distancing have nearly recovered. Metro Houston lost 361,400 jobs in March/April ’20. However, 213,500 jobs, 59.1 percent of jobs lost, have been recovered since then. Construction and manufacturing have the most jobs to recoup in Houston, needing to fill gaps of 33,400 and 26,300 jobs respectively.
2. COVID/VACCINE: The Delta variant continues to spread rapidly throughout the U.S., including Houston, due to vaccine hesitancy. A fourth wave of the pandemic may be underway. More than a hundred COVID-19 patients were admitted daily to hospitals in the Texas Medical Center over the weekend of July 16 to 18. The weekly average of daily new COVID-19 cases in the Houston region jumped to 507 in the week prior to this webinar: July 12 to 19.
3. INFLATION: Inflation has jumped over the past few months to the highest rates since ’08, due to supply chain bottlenecks and consumers eager to spend savings accumulated during the pandemic. Although higher than expected, inflation is expected to subside by the end of the year and into ’22. The Federal Reserve, although admitting concern, does not plan to adjust monetary policy to address the inflation.
4. GDP GROWTH: GDP growth has been high over the past few quarters, reaching 6.4 percent in Q1/21 and forecasted to be 9.11 in Q2/21. The high GDP growth rate has been driven by reopening economies and robust consumerism due to pent-up demand. The GDP growth rate is expected to subside but remain strong in ’21 and into ’22.
   Next month’s Economy Series will be an in-person event at Partnership Tower and feature the annual Houston Facts publication. The Partnership Research division will present key findings from the publication, which will be handed out at the event. Seats are limited so sign up early to secure your spot.Get the latest data and analysis from the Partnership. 
5. OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS: The annual Houston’s Economic Highlights publication was launched during the webinar, with links to the digital publication provided in advance to attendees. The publication provides an overview of Houston over the past 10 years. ‘Highlights’ from Highlights include: the more than 1.2 million new residents added, and the 644,500 jobs added, all since ’10.